West Ham United vs Liverpool, 5:30pm – London Stadium

Liverpool enter this game following a thumping victory at home to Huddersfield, while West Ham will be looking to make up for a disastrous injury time collapse away to Palace. This was preceded by their league cup win against Spurs, which many had thought would see the end of their erratic form The model gives the home side a 19.1% chance of winning this fixture, which is marginally better than the 17.9% chance assigned to them by Betfair’s odds, at the time of writing.

The model also estimates a draw to be more likely than Betfair does – 23.3% compared to 26.3%.

A Liverpool win is the most likely outcome here, however just how likely this is is up for debate. Liverpool have won just one of their five away league games so far this season. It’s worth baring in mind also that they conceded twice in this game, against a Leicester City side who have since replaced their manager.

The model attributes a 54.6% chance to a Liverpool win, which, against a West Ham side with pride to restore, seems much more apt than the 59.6% chance implied on the Betfair Exchange.